Ndfeb will be in Short Supply for Market Demands in the Future

NdFeB is an alloy of Pu’er metal, boron iron, etc. It belongs to the third generation rare earth permanent magnet material. It has the advantages of high magnetic energy product, high coercivity and high energy density. It is the best cost-effective magnet and honor the “magnetic king. “The reputation. Its chemical formula is Nd2Fe14B, which is an artificial permanent magnet and is the permanent magnet with the strongest magnetic force so far.

 

Global high performance NdFeB consumption structure

neodymium Application

–Date from Jintong Magnet Shanxi headquarter 2018.07.24

 

1. The main application of NdFeB in traditional vehicles is EPS steering system.

Automotive NdFeB consumption forecast, with the improvement of the stability and safety requirements of mid- to high-end Car, the penetration rate of EPS in the global traditional car gradually increased from 9% in 2010 to 50%. The penetration rate of EPS system in domestic automobiles is 40-45%, while the penetration rate of EPS in European and American markets has already exceeded 80%, and Japan has reached 90%. Therefore, the domestic EPS market still has a large Growth space. According to the following assumptions:

1) The annual growth rate of domestic automobile production in 2017 and 2018 is 5%, the annual growth rate of global automobile production is 4%;

2) The domestic EPS penetration rate increases by 4.5% every year, and the global EPS penetration rate increases every year. 3%, it is estimated that the domestic growth rate of NdFeB in EPS systems in 2017 and 2018 is about 15%, and the growth rate of NdFeB in global EPS systems is about 10%.

2.New energy vehicles -permanent magnet synchronous motors have become the mainstream choice.

The permanent magnet synchronous motor for new energy vehicles has many advantages such as simple structure, high power density and light weight, and is the mainstream choice for motors for new energy vehicles. Compared with other types of motors, the main advantage of permanent magnet synchronous motors is that permanent magnet synchronous motors can provide maximum power output and acceleration for new energy vehicles at the same mass and volume. New energy vehicles have strict requirements on space and weight. Therefore, most new energy vehicles have chosen permanent magnet synchronous motors. The disadvantage of the permanent magnet synchronous motor is that the permanent magnet material will have magnetic decay under the conditions of high temperature, vibration and overcurrent, so the stability of the motor will be affected under complicated working conditions. In view of the above advantages of permanent magnet synchronous motors, in addition to ModelX and Models, nearly 90% of new energy vehicles worldwide use permanent magnet synchronous motors. Tesla’s model3, which will be mass-produced in July 2017, also turned to rare earth permanent magnet motors, meaning that rare earth permanent magnets have completely occupied the new energy vehicle market.

1) Each pure electric vehicle consumes 5-10kg of NdFeB, and each plug-in hybrid car consumes 2-3kg, and each hybrid car consumes 1-2kg. Based on the following assumptions:

2) Global PHEV and EV production increased by 35% and 40% respectively in 2017-2018, global PHEV products increased by 15% and 15%, respectively;

3) 2) EV, PHEV and EV bicycle NdFeB consumption were 7.5 respectively Kg, 2.5kg and 1.5kg; 2017-2018 global new energy vehicles NdFeB usage is expected to be 92.06 million tons and 118.67 million tons, an increase of 25% and 29% respectively.

 

3.mechanical hard disk – demand is shrinking

The consumption of NdFeB in a single hard disk drive is about 10g. According to the shipment of 426 million mechanical hard disks in 2016, the consumption of NdFeB in 2016 is 4258 tons. It is expected that the shipment of mechanical hard drives will continue to shrink in the next two years. We assume that global mechanical hard disk shipments in 2017 and 2018 will decrease by 5% year-on-year, and the corresponding NdFeB consumption will be 4045 tons and 3,843 tons respectively.

4.consumer electronics – mobile phone NdFeB demand is growing steadily

NdFeB is an indispensable high-end accessory in smartphones, with its electro-acoustic part (micro microphone, micro speaker/receiver, Bluetooth headset, hi-fi stereo headphones), vibration motor, camera focus and even sensor applications in the future. The functions of wireless charging, etc. require the application of the strong magnetic properties of NdFeB. The amount of NdFeB in each mobile phone is about 2g. In 2016, global mobile phone shipments were 1.961 billion, an increase of 3.21% year-on-year, and the corresponding NdFeB usage is expected to be 3922 tons. Assuming that the average annual growth rate of mobile phone shipments in the next two years is 2%, the amount of NdFeB in 2017-2018 is 4,000 tons and 4,080 tons.

 

5. wind power – direct drive motor penetration growth space

According to forecasts, by 2021, the installed capacity of new wind turbines in the world will be 75 million kilowatts. Based on this, the annual growth rate of new installed capacity of global wind turbines in 2017-2020 is 6.5%. Assuming that the penetration rate of permanent magnet direct-drive motors in wind turbines increases by 1% per year in 2017-2018, the amount of NdFeB in the global wind turbines is expected to be 139.67 million tons and 152.87 million tons in 2017-2018, up 9.54% year-on-year and 9.46%.

 

6. energy-saving elevators – EPS and micro-motor NdFeB demand is growing steadily

In 2016, the output of domestic elevators was 771,400 units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, accounting for more than 90% of the global elevator production. In 2016, the penetration rate of domestic energy-saving elevators is about 60%. In addition, the amount of NdFeB in each energy-saving elevator is 7kg. According to this calculation, the consumption of NdFeB in domestic energy-saving elevators is expected to be 3,240 tons in 2016. 1) Considering the substantial increase in real estate investment and new home sales area in 2016, the demand for elevators is expected to be gradually released in the past two years, assuming an average annual growth rate of 10% for domestic elevator production in 2017-2018; 2) Assumption of energy-saving elevators The penetration rate increases by 5% annually. Based on the above assumptions, it is estimated that the consumption of NdFeB in domestic energy-saving elevators in 2017-2018 will be 3,861 tons and 4,574 tons, respectively, an increase of 19.17% and 18.46% respectively.

 

7.inverter air conditioner – EPS and micro-motor NdFeB demand is growing steadily

The penetration rate of high-end inverter air conditioners in inverter air conditioners is expected to be about 40%, and each high-end inverter air conditioner needs to use high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials of about 0.28kg on average. Based on this, the consumption of NdFeB in domestic inverter air conditioners is estimated. It is 4,438 tons. Assume that domestic air-conditioning production will increase by 3% annually in 2017-2018, and the penetration rate of high-end inverter air conditioners will increase by 2% per year. In 2017-2018, the consumption of NdFeB in domestic inverter air conditioners will be 4,800 tons and 5,179 tons, up 8.15% year-on-year. And 7.90%.

 

8. intelligent robot – the blue sea market of NdFeB

NdFeB is mainly used in sensors and drive motors for intelligent robots. Intelligent robots mainly include industrial robots, professional service robots and personal/home robots. According to the statistics of the International Federation of Robotics, the sales growth of global industrial robots, professional service robots and personal/home service robots in 2014 was 29%, 11% and 17.5%, respectively. The rapid development of the demand for intelligent manufacturing and intelligent services in the future is the only way for industrial upgrading and consumption upgrade. Combined with the relevant predictions of the International Robot Federation, it is expected that the growth rate of industrial robot production and sales will be between 12-15% in the next few years. The growth rate of professional service robot production and sales is about 10-12%, and the growth rate of personal/home service robot production and sales is about 20%. The sales volume of NdFeB by a single industrial robot and professional service robot is about 20kg, and the consumption of a single personal/home service robot NdFeB is about 0.5kg. According to the forecast of robot production and sales data and the consumption of single robot, it is estimated that the consumption of NdFeB in the global robot field in 2016-2018 will be 9,431 tons, 10,917 tons and 12,799 tons, respectively, up 13.5%, 14.7% and 18.3%.

 

9.The world’s three major manufacturing companies

Hitachi Metals: Japan’s largest manufacturer of NdFeB, whose production base is mainly located in Japan. In June 2015, it was decided to establish “Hitachi Metallic Sanhuan Magnetic Materials (Nantong) Co., Ltd.” in Jiangsu together with Zhongke Sanhuan. The first phase of the project will build an annual production capacity of 2,000 tons of NdFeB production line, which is scheduled to be put into operation in 2016.

Shin-Etsu Chemical: Following the completion of the annual production of 3,000 tons of rare earth magnet alloy picking line (Phase I) in Fujian Changting Base in 2013, the magnetic powder production line (Phase II) with an annual output of 3,000 tons of rare earth magnets will also be completed by the end of 2015. All products produced by the project will be exported to Japan for hybrid vehicle production.

Zhongke Sanhuan: China and even the world’s largest NdFeB manufacturer. Its production bases are located in Ningbo, Tianjin, Nantong, Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai and other places. The total production capacity of NdFeB is 18,000 tons/year. In May 2015, the Nantong production base “annual production of 2,000 tons of high-performance NdFeB production line” was officially completed. It is also a partner of Tesla.

The other like Jintong Magnet material estimated capacity at the end of 2018 is 10,000 tons.

Jintong -Magzine1


Post time: Jul-24-2018